Showing posts with label merger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label merger. Show all posts

Monday, October 3, 2011

Getting ready for Mergers & Acquisitions


History indicates that Companies across Globe predominantly focus on organic growth plan rather than inorganic growth plan. However the recent trend indicates a shift in the paradigm and the fact that Global M&A activity has reached $1.5 Trillion in the first half of 2011 itself, a 22% increase from last year levels, it clearly depicts the pace at which the gap between the organic and inorganic growth is reducing.
Sounds interesting, doesn’t it, but the primary question to be answered is “are you ready?” Is your Company enabled with perfect operating procedures and a well placed plan of action? Well, that’s the first step. Prepare yourself for the change, identify the right candidates, scrutinize and acquire the Company with perfect synergies and be ready for the post merger hiccups. It’s a marriage and you got to have the right bride to keep your family intact and grow it too!

Pre M&A Planning - Implementation of Standard Operating Procedures:
Setting up Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) is definitely a strategic planning process – a success factor for sustainable corporate development, which prepares the ground for long-term growth that creates value. Corporate strategy defines the company's vision, sets targets for the long term and outlines the nature and scope of its business. Effective strategies can give the company a decisive competitive edge.
There is of course no such thing as the right process for strategic planning. But, existing planning processes do clearly contain avoidable weaknesses, which must be identified and eliminated. Further, the Company ought to be prepared to minimize the losses from unavoidable weaknesses.
SOPs lets you put into operation documents such as plans, regulation, compliance, and policies. SOPs distil requirements contained in these documents into a format that can be used by internal / external members in their work environment.
It is essential to carefully structure the procedure system individually for each of the process / business segment and Company as a whole. Caution, too many standard operating procedures could lead to a breakdown of the whole System. Minimum recommended period for review list is three years and changes to the SOP should essentially be triggered by the process or the procedure changes or the adaptations, led by the internal site controlling procedure. A clear focus on updating the coherent standard operating procedures regularly is indispensable.
SOP implementation must be planned for the whole Company which would further be split into business segments SOPs and functional departments SOPs. The steps of planning must begin with target planning, i.e., identification of vision, mission and goals. Next step should be strategic analysis (both external and internal analysis) of the Company situation as a whole and for each of the business segment. Post which careful formulation, selection and implementation of the strategy must be executed. Strategy must include product and business portfolio management plans, designing of structures and systems to achieve Company & Management goals and formulating & quantifying competitive strategies. The process definitely doesn’t end here and without performance measurement the entire hard work will have no value. It is very essential to track implementation success through operational checks and performance feedback from each of the business segment and functional department. Finally, corrective actions in case of issues identified would prepare the Company to proceed to the next step.

Key questions to be addressed while setting up the SOPs are:
Pitfalls in the existing system - Effectiveness of your early warning system - Sufficient attention to what competitors are doing – Underpinning of strategic alternatives with quantitative data – Fortification of value-based management - Strategic planning must be bridged with the medium-term and operational planning -Effective strategy implementation tracking system – Transparency in information flow to secure active commitment from the employees.

Pre M&A Planning – Acquisition Strategy:
The acquisition strategies are no different than any other strategic plan or work plan. Development of criterion before an investigation on possible acquisition targets and set up of goals to focus on the time and energy to the type the right candidate. Prior to scouting of targets, the Company must have absolute clarity on its vision and mission and identify its weak spots. The targets identified for acquisition would either assist the acquirer in overcoming its flaws or contribute directly to the primary aim – growth. The targets being looked at for acquisition should result in positive post merger synergies.
Determination of the financial resources to acquire the potential candidates or identification of the source of acquisition financing is another important step for planning. Any blemish on the acquisition financing plans could mark the beginning of doom for the acquirer.
A Pre Merger Planning would be a blueprint for the entire M&A transaction. Continuous research on potential acquisition candidates and developing the business cases for and against acquisition is essential to optimize resource utilization. Of course, like any other strategic plan, pre merger planning is also a dynamic document which will need to be tailored for each of the targets and each of the situational changes.
It is important for the acquiring Company to understand the Acquisition Risk, Integration Risk and Alignment Risk involved in the process, mitigation of which must be factored in the M&A Plan.

M&A Planning:
One would need to consider nature of the transaction, minimum (and maximum) income, geographical location, geographical coverage, years and post-merger management in the home, the ability to transfer Business, turn-around situation, capital requirements continue to grow the business and / or service line of products for your existing business.
The core areas of investigation on the target company should be on the Business Context (historical – current – future), Structure & Composition of the Board, Leadership Team and Business Units, Identification of Critical Positions and Key Contributors (High Potentials; High Performers; “Rising Stars”), Culture Analysis, Analysis of Talent Strategy & Mindset.
It would be useful to determine well in advance the information which will be needed to make an informed decision and look at only serious players who must be willing to realistically meet your needs, their responsiveness and maintain the necessary documentation.
Absolute clarity on the acquisition strategy and growth plan is necessary for the acquiring Company. This should be effectively communicated to the target Company once the decision to acquire is crystallized. A proper communication plan pre M&A is essential to ease the post M&A hiccups.
Due diligence is an important process while considering the targets to be acquired. In spite of an external consultant work on the DD, it is good to have an expert on the board to integrate the various DD reports delivered by different experts like CAs, Lawyers and technical experts.
Valuation is the key in any M&A Transaction to make or break the deal. Clear understanding on the value add by an internal expert is essential, to assess the post integration synergies for the Company.
M&A Plan must contain a detailed insight into the business and organizational risks associated with the degree of fit and match with the target company in terms of people and culture. Acquiring Company must clearly understand the target company’s overall leadership capability and talent inventory. It is essential to identify key leaders who could be targeted for specific retention initiatives, critical positions and post-integration strategic succession planning.

Post M&A Integration
It doesn’t end with a deal closure, an infallible post M&A integration strategy needs to be in place in order to achieve the objectives of the transaction. The skeleton plan will need to be modified and adapted to the specific acquisition targets based on their purchased goods, technologies and techniques to grow both companies together. Since the acquisition may represent a considerable investment of capital, resources and time, in the Companies’ own interest, the integration should be made as easy as possible. A thorough action plan framed by the management along with the consultants and experts in the areas of need is required for a successful result.
M&A creates value only when the value of synergies exceeds the acquisition premium paid. The integration plan must identify and unlock the full value post M&A which should include enhancing revenue and asset efficiency, reducing OPEX and cost of capital as well as tightly monitoring integration costs. Industry-specific benchmarks and synergy opportunity must enable the Company to spot the areas with the greatest value potential in addition to the regular consolidation and reconfiguration benefits.
It is vital to have a “road map” for a smooth integration process that further reduces key talent and customer “run off” and that does not distract key personnel from maintaining the focus on achieving the necessary synergies to achieving value.
The best practices on operating procedures set up in the Company will aid in easy adaption post M&A. Based on the integration master plan, the new business and operating model should be clarified and effectively put into place. Continuous meaningful communication and a cultural change program will be needed to ensure sustainable employee support of the merger.
Change and resource management towards success will be the key objectives from the Day One post integration. The entire focus of the strategy and structure development must be on organizational and management alignment through an accelerated transition. The spot light must be on the priority initiatives with clear communication of the same to all the stakeholders.
M&A process is not standing ahead alone but standing ahead together!

Written by: CA. Aparna RamMohan
Source: Published in the Sep 2011 issue of the News Bulletin of KSCAA (same author)

Friday, November 19, 2010

Summary of Economic Outlook Survey Conducted by FICCI in July 2010

Annual Forecasts for 2010-11
GDP growth – 8.5 percent
Agriculture and allied activities growth – 3.5 percent
Industry growth – 10.0 percent
Services growth – 9.0 percent
Fiscal Deficit – 5.1 percent of GDP
IIP – 10.6 percent
WPI inflation rate (End March 2011) – 6.5 percent
Money Supply (M3) growth – 17.0 percent
Trade Balance – (-) 8.2 percent
USD / INR exchange rate (End March 2011) – Rs. 44.5/USD
Bank credit growth – 20.0 percent

Quarterly Forecasts for Q1 (Apr- June) and Q2 (July- Sep) of 2010-11
GDP growth – 8.7 percent (Q1, 2010-11) and 8.5 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
Agriculture and allied activities growth – 2.6 percent (Q1, 2010-11) and 4.0 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
Industry growth – 11.0 percent (Q1, 2010-11) and 10.0 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
Services growth – 9.2 percent (Q1, 2010-11) and 9.1 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
IIP – 13.1 percent (Q1, 2010-11) and 11.0 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
WPI inflation rate – 10.0 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
Money Supply (M3) growth – 15.8 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
Trade Balance – (-) 8.0 percent (Q2, 2010-11)
USD / INR exchange rate – Rs. 46.0/USD (Q2, 2010-11)
Bank credit growth – 19.5 percent (Q2, 2010-11)

Economists’ views on Expected monetary policy action by the RBI.

Majority of economists feel RBI would continue to move ahead on the path of monetary tightening and anticipate a hike of 25 basis points each in the
repo rate and reverse repo rate in July 27, 2010. Given the present liquidity situation, a hike in CRR on July 27, 2010 was however ruled out by the participating economists. Surveyed economists feel non-food manufacturing inflation is now rising at a fast pace and this could be a source of worry for the RBI.

Further, the full impact of the fuel price revision on inflation numbers is yet to be seen according to the economists. On the growth front, surveyed economists
believe that while the recent IIP numbers may have shown a decline from 16.5 percent in April 2010 to 11.5 percent in May 2010, such a growth is still reasonable and may not dissuade RBI from restricting monetary policy action.

Though the above is the majority view, a few respondents opined that given the moderation in IIP growth and the expected slowdown of inflation in the coming months, a further rate hike by RBI during the policy review appears unlikely at this juncture. They also feel that such frequent rate hikes could derail the growth momentum the economy is witnessing presently.

Potential downside risks to growth in 2010-11.

Downside risks to growth emanate from both domestic and global developments. Domestic factors that could pull down growth include 1) progress and spatial distribution of the monsoon, 2) inflationary situation, 3) premature and aggressive monetary policy action and 4) Four, social unrest leading to output losses,

Data shows that cumulative rainfall in the country between June 1 and July 14 was below normal by 13 percent. A less than optimum monsoon would adversely impact agricultural growth. Even if the rains were normal this year, overall agricultural performance may not be ‘too strong’ as overall soil productivity is now on the lower side. Further, if less rainfall can impact agricultural output, excessive rains and subsequent floods too will be a negative development. Some of the northern states are already seeing floods and this will have a bearing on agri output.

The headline inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. The recent fuel price revision will have an inflationary impact in the months ahead. Economists have pointed out that high prices are eating into the budget of the middle class population as far as their outlay for industrial produce is concerned. Thus if
inflation persists at the current levels for a long time or if there is a sharper than anticipated pick-up in inflation then consumption demand could get dampened.

While normalization of the monetary policy is expected and RBI would  continue to tighten rates in the months  ahead, premature and aggressive  rollback of easy money policy can jeopardize growth. Rapid tightening of monetary policy will affect both consumption and investment demand and this could ease the growth impulses.

Given the recent pick up in naxal activities there is a fear that greater social unrest in times ahead may also lead to output losses and thus impact the growth trajectory.
External factors that could pull down growth include One, uncertainty regarding global recovery and Two, high commodity prices.

There are evident concerns with regard to developments taking place in the Euro Zone. Many believe that the next shock to the capital markets could come from evolving situation in the Euro area. This could increase volatility in capital flows and restrict availability of funds for supporting growth. Besides Euro area, economists are also skeptical about the direction of the US economy. There is a slight chance, some believe, of US economy getting into another recession. This, if it happens, will put a cap on our export growth (services sector like IT will get hit) and in turn affect GDP performance.

High commodity prices including crude prices is also being seen a risk to India’s growth in 2010-11 by a small set of economists.

Inflation situation.

Majority of the economists do not expect inflation rate to fall to the 5 percent mark by end December 2010 as estimated by the government. The general view is that headline inflation would continue to remain around the present levels for the next few months and then gradually trend downwards. There are three broad reasons which economists feel would prevent headline inflation from coming down at least in the next one or two months –

Impact of recent hike in the fuel prices - Fuel price hike will add to the transportation cost for primary articles as well as increase the input costs for manufactured goods.
Sticky food inflation - Spatial distribution of monsoon will be a key factor under watch here
Depreciation of INR which is preventing any meaningful reflection of lower global prices in metals on inflation rate in India

Although inflation would after some time trend downwards, but a good number of economists expect that by December 2010, headline inflation rate would continue to be in the range of 6 percent to 8 percent.

Looking at the prognosis for the two key components – primary articles and manufactured articles – the trend is expected to be the same as for overall inflation. The only difference being that primary inflation will start to cool down from July / August 2010 onwards as the ‘negative base affect’ will
come into play then and manufactured articles inflation would trend down from November 2010 onwards as it was in November 2009 when manufactured goods price index had shown a spike. Besides this base effect, some of the other factors that should help ease inflation later this year include –
1)      Low probability of further high MSP hikes (Primary articles inflation)
2)      Slowdown in global growth which would keep a lid on commodity prices particularly those of industrial metals (Manufactured articles inflation)

Annual Forecasts for 2010-111
The economists who participated in the third round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey have estimated annual GDP growth rate (at factor cost) for the fiscal year 2010-11 to be 8.5 percent. The estimates from different participants for GDP growth rate range from a minimum of 7.8 percent to a maximum of 9.0 percent. The economists’ forecast for annual GDP growth rate this time is very close to the 8.4 percent forecast made in the last survey (April 2010).

The sector wise GDP forecast by the survey respondents shows that agriculture and allied activities will grow by 3.5 percent during the year 2010-11, which is lower than the forecast of 4.0 percent obtained in the earlier survey. Primary sector’s growth forecast varied from 2.5 percent to 5.4 percent.

Forecasters have revised industry sector growth number upwards to 10.0 percent during 2010-11 from 9.2 percent in the last survey. At the same time, they foresee that service sector will clock a growth rate of 9.0 percent in 2010-11, which is a lower estimate from the 9.3 percent obtained in the previous survey for the same year. While the range for industry sector growth is 8.8 percent to 12.0 percent, the range for services sector growth is 8.1 percent to 10.0 percent.

Economists see central government fiscal deficit at 5.1 percent during 2010-11, which is a downward revision from 5.8 percent obtained in the earlier survey. The estimate ranges between a minimum of 5.0 percent to a maximum of 6.0 percent.

The respondents anticipate that IIP would grow at a rate of 10.6 percent during 2010-11 against the earlier forecast of 10.0 percent. The surveyed participants adjusted both the WPI and the CPI (IW) against their earlier estimates. The WPI inflation rate is revised by about 1 percentage points to be placed at 6.5 percent by end March 2011 against 5.5 percent in the earlier estimate. The CPI (IW) inflation also is expected to settle at a higher rate of 8.0 percent. This is however lower than the previous estimate of 8.5 percent.

The range of both the WPI and the CPI (IW) varies between a minimum of 3.5 percent to a maximum of 9.1 percent and a minimum of 7.0 percent to a maximum of 11.4 percent respectively. The money supply (M3) growth is projected to be 17.0 percent during 2010-11. This was projected to
be 19.6 percent in the previous survey.

Economists have revised the export and import estimates upwards for 2010-11 from the earlier projections. While the median forecast for export growth is 16.5 percent, the same for imports is 26.0 percent. The earlier projections for export and import were 15.0 percent 12.0 percent respectively.

In this round of survey, the economists revised the trade balance slightly downwards to - 8.2 percent of the GDP during the current fiscal against a - 8.3 percent of the GDP in the last survey.

Economists expect that bank credit growth for the year 2010-11 would stand at 20.0 percent against the earlier forecast of 19.0 percent.

Quarterly Forecasts for Q1 (Apr-June) and Q2 (July- Sep) of 2010-112
The surveyed economists estimate that the GDP growth (at factor cost) for Q1 (Apr- June) 2010-11 to be 8.7 percent and then move down to 8.5 percent during Q2 (July- Sep) of 2010-11.

Looking at a sector wise growth projections the economists foresee a lower growth for agriculture and allied activities during the first quarter of 2010-11. Agri and allied activities are estimated to grow at 2.6 percent during Apr-June. The sector however is expected to register a robust growth of 4.0 percent during the second quarter of the current fiscal as per the projections made by the respondents.

Both the secondary and the tertiary sector are projected to have a lower growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Economists foresee that the industrial sector will clock a robust growth of 11.0 percent during Q1 and the slide down by about one percentage point to 10.0 percent during
Q2 of 2010-11. The service sector is projected to grow at 9.2 percent in the first quarter and then fall marginally to grow at 9.1 percent during the second quarter.

Economists expect that IIP would clock a growth rate of 13.1 percent and 11.0 percent in the first and second quarter of 2010-11 respectively.
Economists anticipate that the WPI inflation rate will be 10 percent in the second quarter of 2010-11.

They also expect the CPI (IW) to reduce to 11.0 percent in the second quarter from the projected figure of 13.7 percent in the first quarter. Economists foresee money supply growth at 15.8 percent during Q2 of the current fiscal year.
The survey respondents feel that the export growth will fall from 32.1 percent in the first quarter of 2010-11 to 27.3 percent in the second quarter of 2010-11. Imports are expected to see their growth going a notch down to 36.3 percent in the second quarter from a 38.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010-11.

The economists feel that the country’s trade balance will be in a negative zone in both the first and second quarter of 2010-11 and also expects the trade balance to widen in the second quarter. The trade balance is projected at (-) 7.0 percent of GDP for Q1 of 2010-11 and at (-) 8.0 percent of GDP in Q2 of
2010-11.

The forecasters feel that exchange rate of Rupee would be around 46 per USD in Q2 of 2010-11.

Economists have projected bank credit to grow by 19 percent in the first quarter of 2010-11 and then slightly increase to reach 19.5 percent during the second quarter of 2010-11.

Economists’ views on expected monetary policy action by the RBI
On July 2, 2010, the central bank announced a hike of 25 basis points in both repo and reverse repo rates. This intra policy date hike came as a surprise to many of the market participants who were expecting RBI to stay on status quo mode till July 27, 2010 when the quarterly review is due. Most of the economists who participated in the FICCI Economic Outlook Survey said that they were expecting RBI to tighten rates while announcing the monetary / credit policy review on July 27, 2010.

A similar view was obtained when FICCI had interacted with the economists last month on the Greece Debt Crisis and how RBI would react keeping in mind developments in the Euro Zone. Given this and RBI’s pre-emptive move, they asked the survey participants on what they thought RBI would now do at the forthcoming monetary policy review.

The responses received show that an overwhelming majority of economists feel that RBI would continue to move ahead on the path of monetary tightening and that they should be prepared for another hike of 25 basis points each in the repo rate and reverse repo rate in July 27, 2010. Given the present liquidity situation, a hike in CRR on July 27, 2010 was however ruled out by the participating economists.

Economists have pointed out that non-food manufacturing inflation is now rising at a fast pace and this could be a source of worry for the RBI. Further, the full impact of the fuel price revision on inflation numbers is yet to be seen according to the economists. They feel that this second point also gives RBI
reason to continue with its policy tightening drive. On the growth front, surveyed economists believe that while the recent IIP numbers may have shown a decline from 16.5 percent in April 2010 to 11.5 percent in May 2010, such a growth is still sizable and may not dissuade RBI from restricting monetary
policy action.

Though the above is the majority view, a few respondents opined that given the moderation in IIP growth and the expected slowdown of inflation in the coming months, a further rate hike by RBI during the policy review appears unlikely at this juncture. They also feel that such frequent rate hikes could derail the growth momentum the economy is witnessing at this point.

Economists’ views on potential downside risks to growth in 2010-11
According to CSO, Indian economy registered a growth of 7.4 percent in 2009-10. This improvement in performance over the previous year (6.7 percent), and the continued momentum being seen both in consumption and in investment demand in the economy raised expectation about growth performance in the fiscal 2010-11. Both government and RBI have pegged GDP growth for 2010-11 at the level of 8 percent plus. More recent estimates coming from the IMF show that India may well clock a growth of  9.5 percent in 2010. While such forecasts are certainly encouraging and underline the steady growth being witnessed in the economy, there are at the same time a few factors that can pull down these favourable estimates for growth in 2010-11. In course of our discussion and interaction with the participating economists, FICCI requested them to list out the downside risks to growth they see in fiscal 2010-11. Feedback received shows that the downside risks to growth emanate from both domestic and global developments.

Economists’ views on inflation situation
In May 2010, headline inflation touched 10.16 percent. In June 2010, the figure went up further to 10.55 percent. According to the Planning Commission there could be some further increase in inflation rate in July 2010 when the full impact of fuel price revision will come into effect. However, after that inflation
rate is expected to trend down slowly and be around 5 percent by the close of this year. They asked the participating economists on how they viewed the inflation situation and are there an upside risk to inflation from here on.

Source: FICCI Economic Outlook Survey – July 2010
Compiled into article by CA. Aparna RamMohan. You can reach me at caaparnasridhar@gmail.com.